Convicting the deposed despot in the Senate is the hill we must climb. Once again, we enter uncharted waters. To reach our goal we have no choice but to chart a steady course between the Scylla of vengeance and the Charybdis of false unity.
If we’re to live up to our own time, then victory won’t lie in the blade, but in all the bridges we’ve made.
That is the promise to glade, the hill we climb, if only we dare.
It’s because being American is more than a pride we inherit.
It’s the past we step into and how we repair it.
- Amanda Gorman
Numbers matter. And right now here are the numbers in the Senate according to the Washington Post’s Whip Count:
42 Senators are ready to convict.
19 Senators are open to convicting.
That is 61 votes, short of the 67 needed to convict.
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There are 28 senators who are opposed to conviction. For now, I will assume they are immune to reason and will not change their mind regardless of how damning the evidence before them is. Depending on how the trial goes, that may change, but I am not counting on it.
That is short of the 33 needed to block conviction.
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This puts the focus on the 11 senators who have yet to state their position.
3 of those are Democrats (Ossoff, Sinema, and Warnock). I have no doubt they can be counted on to convict. That brings us to 64, still short of the 67 needed.
The remaining 8 are all Republicans. Kennedy (R-LA) objected to certification so I count him out. That leaves us with 7 to find 3 votes.
Here are the 7:
John Barasso (R-WY)
Mike Crapo (R-ID)
Deb Fischer (R-NE)
Mike Lee (R-UT)
Jerry Moran (R-KS)
James Risch (R-ID)
Todd Young (R-IN)
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I have no special insight here. But of the seven, I think Barasso, Lee and Young may be the easiest to sway. I pick Barasso because he is from Wyoming, and that is a state where Cheney’s still hold sway. I pick Lee because he was the one who provided the Giuliani voice mail. I pick Young because he is from Indiana and regardless of how people feel about Pence, I doubt they disdain their native son so much they would ignore the fact he was targeted for lynching.
These are my thoughts based on no data, so don’t give them too much weight. Any thoughts/ideas/strategies for reaching the summit welcome.
This is a battle we must win. Boot up and suit up. It’s time to start climbing.